Why join Alan Cowgill in Portland with our sister-association Northwest Real Estate Investors Association on Thursday, November 2nd and Saturday, November 4th?

On Thursday, November 2nd, 6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. learn from Alan Cowgill about "how to get all the private money you need to fund your real estate deals and create your own private bank." Attend this meeting for a hosted dinner, a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift card, and free registration to the Saturday workshop.

On Saturday, November 4th, 10:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. learn from Alan Cowgill about "attracting private lender money made easy." Attend this workshop for a hosted lunch and a chance to win a $500 Amazon gift card

Why Learn from Alan and what makes him different?

1. Alan has created innovative systems, tools, and personal training that put him squarely on the cutting edge of real estate investing education. Here is just a small list of his innovations:
   
   • The Three-Touch Rule (The rule that differentiates family, friends, and associates from strangers) – it is important to understand this so you are compliant with SEC rules on when you can approach folks to lend you money)
   • The Educational Luncheon (How to turn strangers into associates)
   • Alan’s SEC Chart (Innovative chart that enables students to easily choose the proper SEC-compliant program for their business)
   • The California Loophole (How to get $5,000,000 in private money for only a $700 fee and be able to advertise, pool money, and cross state lines)
   • The Family, Friends, & Associates Concept
   • The 3 Levels of SEC Compliance (This is important because it makes it simple for real estate investors to know which SEC programs they can use.)
   • Website disclaimer by state (Created by an attorney.)
   • His knowledge of the SEC rules in every single state
   • "The Path to Wealth" – what all real estate investors are looking for when working with private lenders – how to convert private individuals into private moneylenders. Alan not only teaches you what to say, but when to say it and when to move on. This also covers what marketing tools you should give the lender and when. One of the most important things to know is when to switch from asking for money to discussing the mechanics of how the money is handled. There is nothing else on the planet that gives you all you need to know about accessing and working with private lenders.
   • And I could go on and on
2. Alan’s depth of knowledge about Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) compliance state-by-state.
   
3. At his live events, students — under Alan’s guidance — have raised over half a BILLION DOLLARS in just their first 24 hours.
   
4. Alan listens to his students then uses that insight to create an abundance of easy-to-use real estate products.
   
5. Alan’s students consistently let it be known that they LOVE his live events because of his organization, his training style, and his in-depth knowledge, and the team of employees and outside staff he brings with him to the events..
   
6. Students who have been with other private lending trainers regularly call Alan’s office because of the lack of SEC instruction, or because they have been given incorrect direction and are looking for the correct way forward.
   
7. Alan has a burning passion that his students remain safe, which has led him to provide them with a variety of expert SEC training and tools.
   
8. The amazing volume of deals he has done using private money.
   
9. The ridiculous number of times Alan has found his copyrighted product and training materials in other trainers’ systems.
   
10. Alan not only provides a “warehouse” of SEC products, but the students that receive his training and products are always amazed at the depth of information provided.

REGISTER for the November 2 monthly investors forum with Alan Cowgill here

REGISTER for the November 4 Saturday workshop with Alan Cowgill here

Pending Home Sales Up 0.9% in July

The National Association of Realtors is reporting that pending home sales were up 0.9% in July, 2023.  Click here to read more.

FHFA Says Q2 Home Prices Up 3% Over Last Year

According to the latest Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI), home prices were up 3% over Q2 2022 though Q2 2023.  Click here to read more.

U.S. Construction Spending Up 0.7% in July

The U.S. government is reporting that total construction spending in July, 2023 was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, which is 0.7% higher than June’s revised estimate and 5.5% higher than one year ago.  Click here to read more.

NAR President Resigns and Other Real Estate Wranglings

On a recent episode of Real Estate News for Investors, Kathy Fettke says like any industry, there are plenty of stories within the real estate world about lawsuits, fraud, and scandalous behavior.  Click here to read more.

U.S. Employment Situation – August 2023

According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187k, in August 2023, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.8%.  Click here to read more.

Zumper’s National Rent Report for August ’23

Rental information site Zumper recently released their latest monthly National Rent Report for August, 2023.  Click here to read more.

New Single-Family Home Size Reach Decade Low

Recent analysis from the NAHB’s Eye on Housing shows that for new single family homes, the median single-family square floor area declined to 2,191 square feet, the lowest reading since the end of 2010.  Click here to read more.

Monthly Cost of Buying vs. Renting a House in America

Infographic:  Today’s graphic from the Visual Capitalist says the U.S. has witnessed the biggest numerical gap in 50 years between the cost of renting or owning a home.  Click here to read more.

By David Pickron

It might seem like an antiquated phrase since most of us no longer buy apples by the bunch, but the concerns about one bad apple spoiling the whole bunch are real.  As it applies to our industry, this is becoming a critical issue. Here’s why: with the rapid increase of rents over the past few years, more and more of our properties are being shared by more than one tenant in an effort to be able to just afford the rent. In most cases as we backtrack, having more than one tenant would equate to having more than one applicant for the lease.  And when you have more than one tenant potentially on the lease, there are three major questions you need to answer before signing that lease. 

Question #1- Will I Get my Rent?     

Logically it is easy to assume that having more tenants in the property would up the odds that you are going to get paid in full and on-time.  More people and more income should add up in the landlord's favor but that isn’t always true.  Proper screening, including criminal, civil and credit checks, is critical if you want to protect your investment.  Let’s consider that you have three individuals who are friends apply to rent your property.  They each complete an application and upon review, you find that one of them has a history of evictions, their credit is below the standard you normally require for this property, and they are currently unemployed.  What do you do?  You have a few options and things to consider.  How is the credit and eviction history of the other applicants?  How long ago was the eviction for the affected applicant?  Was it affected by Covid or other outside circumstances?  What kind of history does the applicant have with the other applicants who have good credit?  In essence, you have to rely on your criteria and your calculated trust in the other applicants on the lease to pull through with payments, even when or of the poorly qualified tenant can’t fulfill his portion of the lease payment.  This by far is the easiest of the three questions to answer because the additional tenants can always help carry the payments if needed.  The next question is much more difficult as it deals with the complexities of personality and behavior.     

Question #2- Will My Property be Taken Care Of?

This question is where a careful review and analysis of each applicant’s criminal history is critical in ensuring the value of your property.  It’s been said that we become the sum of the five people we spend the most time with. If one or more of your applicants has a criminal history, the likelihood of them having friends and associates with similar history grows exponentially.  Let’s say you have an applicant with a history of drug-related arrests. While it’s not a guarantee, the odds of that applicant having friends with similar histories are high.  Any seasoned landlord will testify that the criminal crowd has a history of destroying property, either through their own negligence or the negligence of the people they invite over.  So while you may have two tenants who are law abiding and take great care of your property, you have to be on the lookout for the one that can bring destruction.  Again, having and applying a strict criteria on each applicant can help save you and your property.     

Question #3- Is My (and the Neighbors) Safety Compromised? 

This may seem like an outrageous question, but my experience says that is much less far-fetched than you might believe.  The last thing a landlord wants is to compromise their safety and the safety of the surrounding neighbors.  We’ve all heard the news stories where the neighbor can’t believe that their neighbor was involved in (fill in the blank) and that they seemed like such “nice guy.”  It’s only when the reporter unveils the laundry list of criminal offenses and past disturbances that the neighbors and the general public see what the offender was really like.  Having a criteria and using the background check results to measure against it for each and every applicant is paramount in keeping all involved in a safer situation. .  If I have to go to the home to collect unpaid rent, I’d rather go in knowing my safety wasn’t in question when I knock on the door 

Let me reiterate, you need to look at each applicant individually.  Then take that individual analysis, add it all together, and make your rental decision. I always invite you to reach out with questions you have regarding applicants.  While we don’t offer legal advice, we can provide you with practical solutions that we have discovered over the last thirty years in managing properties and performing applicant background checks.  Our goal is to help ensure you get paid and that your property is taken care of, all while keeping you safe. 

David Pickron is President of Rent Perfect and a fellow landlord who manages several short- and long-term rentals.  He is a private investigator and teaches organizations across the country the importance of proper screening.  His platform, Rent Perfect, was built to help the small landlord find success.  You can reach David at david@rentperfect.com.

The state's Office of Economic Analysis presented its state economic outlook to the House and Senate Committees on Revenue this month. Some highlights include:

• Inflation has slowed from 9% last summer to closer to 3-4% today
• Getting down tot he Federal Reserve's 2% target is harder
• The full impact of past interest rate hikes may still slow growth in the year ahead
• Higher interest rates today do not pack the same punch given many households and businesses have locked in low fixed term rates, government debt is an exception.
• Oregon is expected to have it's largest "kicker" tax rebate back to Oregonians this year.

Comments from Legislative Leaders on the revenue forecast include:

• Senate President Rob Wagner (D-Lake Oswego): "As Oregon's public schools welcome back students, we can see the importance of the unprecedented investments we made as a Legislature during the 2023 session. Today's forecast means we can sustain critical funding for services that directly impact the lives of Oregon families. We made historic investments during the 2023 session to improve people's lives by funding behavioral health care, public schools, affordable housing, and jobs. With a stable economic outlook, I am excited to build upon this important work for the people of Oregon in the 2024 session."
• Speaker of the House Dan Rayfield (D-Corvallis): "In a position where we see so many people in need, having a strong economy is essential to continuing to deliver on the issues Oregonians care about most: homelessness, access to behavioral health and healthcare, community safety, and education. We know that Oregon families are still struggling with daily costs. This stable forecast reaffirms that we can continue to find creative solutions to our ongoing efforts and provide oversight that leads to tangible outcomes like securing family wage jobs and connecting people with addiction and mental health services. Oregon's Democratic leadership remains committed to building a fiscally responsible budgets that result in what we are seeing today: a stabilizing and growing economy. We'll continue to maintain and strengthen services that bring down costs for working families and make sure they have the resources they need to take care of their kids."
• Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp (R-Bend): "We must capitalize on this moment with real assets - not empty policies - to leave our state better off for the next generations. Oregonians are all too familiar with high costs of living, excessive taxes, and a severe lack of housing thanks to decades of failed policies pushed by Democrats. This is the time to boldly invest in infrastructure like roads, sewer systems, and water for all Oregonians who want to build or buy a home affordably."
• House Republican Leader Vikki Breese-Iverson (R-Prineville): "Public safety must be our top priority, particularly cracking down on crime and the fentanyl crisis plaguing our communities. We must support our law enforcement and the critical work they are doing to make Oregon a safer place to live, work, and raise a family. While this morning's economic forecast revealed Oregon's revenue is stabilizing, the Legislature cannot view this as a free pass to spend with reckless abandon. We must exercise fiscal responsibility while prioritizing Oregon's most pressing issues."

The CEO of Real estate mega-portal Redfin announced in early November that it was tightening its focus and laying off 13% of its workforce – including closing their home-flipping business, RedfinNOW.  The announcement was made through a company-wide email entitled “All-Hands Email on November Layoff” sent out by CEO Glenn Kelman.

RedfinNOW offered potential homesellers a “hassle-free way” to sell their homes.  They were given an all-cash offer within days that that promised “no repairs, staging, or open houses so you can stick to your work and life schedules.”  Apparently the promotion became a too much of a financial burden as Redfin took possession of “hundreds of millions of dollars in houses that you yourself wouldn’t want to own right now,” according to Kelman’s email.  Indeed…

“We’re laying off 862 brilliant, loyal people and also closing RedfinNow. We’ll still need home-services employees for our concierge service to fix up brokerage customers’ listings, but since that group spent most of its time renovating RedfinNow homes, it will get much smaller.”

“…iBuying is a staggering amount of money and risk for a now-uncertain benefit. We’ve tied up hundreds of millions of dollars in houses that you yourself wouldn’t want to own right now. Even before its overhead expenses, the RedfinNow properties segment will likely lose $22 – $26 million dollars in 2022. However small our iBuying loss may be compared to others, that loss is still larger than we could afford to bear again.”

Click here to read the full announcement at Redfin.com.

According to Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor Report for September, 2022, median home prices fell 0.52%, continuing a three-month streak of declines.  They say that despite price corrections, home values in the nation’s 50 largest markets remain elevated by anywhere from 19% to 66% since the start of the pandemic.  However, they point out that $1.3 trillion in recently added equity vanished from the market in Q3, the largest quarterly dollar decline on record, and the largest on a percentage basis since 2009.  Likewise, the number of underwater homeowners has climbed nearly 275K over the past four months (more than doubling the population) with fewer than 500K homes are currently underwater nationwide.  Foreclosure starts declined by 9% to 18.4K, holding the line at 3% of serious delinquencies
in September, down slightly month over month and less than half of pre-pandemic levels.

“In the span of just three months, U.S. mortgage holders saw a total of $1.3T in newly acquired equity evaporate…”

“Also, as we’ve covered in prior Mortgage Monitors, the vast majority of homes at risk of falling underwater are those that were purchased in 2022 and late 2021, at or near pandemic-era peak prices. While these loans clearly deserve careful, ongoing monitoring, to put that into context, just 3.6% of nearly 53M U.S. mortgage holders are either underwater or have less than 10% equity in their homes – roughly half the share coming into the pandemic.”  said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske.

Click here to read the full report at Black Knight.

From the National Association of Realtors:

WASHINGTON (November 10, 2022) – An overwhelming majority of metro markets saw home price gains in the third quarter of 2022 despite mortgage rates that approached 7% and declining sales, according to the National Association of Realtors®' latest quarterly report. Forty-six percent of the 185 tracked metro areas registered double-digit price increases, down from 80% in the second quarter of this year.

The national median single-family existing-home price climbed 8.6% from a year ago to $398,500. Year-over-year price appreciation decelerated when compared to the previous quarter's 14.2%.

"Much lower buying capacity has slowed home price growth and the trend will continue until mortgage rates stop rising," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "The median income needed to buy a typical home has risen to $88,300 – that's almost $40,000 more than it was prior to the start of the pandemic, back in 2019."

Among the major U.S. regions, the South registered the largest share of single-family existing-home sales (44%) and the greatest year-over-year price appreciation (11.9%) in the third quarter. Prices elevated 8.2% in the Northeast, 7.4% in the West, and 6.6% in the Midwest.1

The top 10 metro areas with the largest year-over-year price increases all recorded gains greater than 18%, with seven of those markets in Florida. Those include North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. (23.8%); Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. (21.2%); Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C. (21.1%); Panama City, Fla. (20.5%); Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. (19.6%); Port St. Lucie, Fla. (19.4%); Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C. (18.9%); Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, Tenn.-Va. (18.8%); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (18.8%); and Ocala, Fla. (18.8%).

Half of the top 10 most expensive markets in the U.S. were in California, including San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. ($1,688,000; 2.3%); San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. ($1,300,000; -3.7%); Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif. ($1,200,000; 9.1%); Urban Honolulu, Hawaii ($1,127,400; 7.6%); San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. ($900,000; 5.9%); Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. ($893,200; 3.8%); Boulder, Colo. ($826,900; 7.5%); Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, Fla. ($746,600; 16.7%); Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. ($741,300; 4.6%); and Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. ($698,900; 6.2%).

"The more expensive markets on the West Coast will likely experience some price declines following this rapid price appreciation, which is the result of many years of limited home building," Yun added. "The Midwest, with relatively affordable home prices, will likely continue to see price gains as incomes and rents both rise."

In the third quarter of 2022, stubbornly high home prices and increasing mortgage rates reduced housing affordability. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $1,840. This represents a marginal increase from the second quarter of this year ($1,837), but a significant jump of $614 – or 50% – from one year ago. Families typically spent 25% of their income on mortgage payments, down from 25.3% in the prior quarter, but up from 17.2% one year ago.

"A return to a normal spread between the government borrowing rate and the home purchase borrowing rate will bring the 30-year mortgage rates down to around 6%," Yun said. "The usual spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year mortgage rate is between 150 to 200 basis points, rather than the current spread of 300 basis points."

First-time buyers looking to purchase a typical home during the third quarter of 2022 continued to feel the impact of housing's growing unaffordability. For a typical starter home valued at $338,700 with a 10% down payment loan, the monthly mortgage payment rose to $1,808 – nearly identical to the previous quarter ($1,807), but an increase of almost $600, or 49%, from one year ago ($1,210). First-time buyers typically spent 37.8% of their family income on mortgage payments, up from 36.8% in the previous quarter. A mortgage is considered unaffordable if the monthly payment (principal and interest) amounts to more than 25% of the family's income.2

A family needed a qualifying income of at least $100,000 to afford a 10% down payment mortgage in 59 markets, up from 53 in the prior quarter. Yet, a family needed a qualifying income of less than $50,000 to afford a home in 17 markets, down from 23 in the previous quarter.

The National Association of Realtors® is America's largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

Data tables for MSA home prices (single-family and condo) are posted at https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability. If insufficient data is reported for an MSA in a particular quarter, it is listed as N/A. For areas not covered in the tables, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

NOTE: NAR releases quarterly median single-family price data for approximately 185 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). In some cases, the MSA prices may not coincide with data released by state and local Realtor® associations. Any discrepancy may be due to differences in geographic coverage, product mix, and timing. In the event of discrepancies, Realtors® are advised that for business purposes, local data from their association may be more relevant.